Not even four months after the event, we are already seeing a reevaluation of the U.N.’s�Copenhagen climate summit and the accord that came out of it.
yesterday reporting that the initiatives that came out of Copenhagen have a good chance of holding warming to 2 degrees celsius by 2100. Today, with a report that is slightly more pessimistic but much sunnier than anything we were seeing in December.The Vine leans heavily on at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, who found that the Copenhagen commitments give the world a 50 percent chance of limiting warming to 2 degrees by 2100.
Still, the blog notes that the United States� commitment to emissions curbs, or lack thereof, is the crucial variable.
FT Energy Source tempers Houser�s conclusions with the projections from Project Catalyst and the Center for American Progress (CAP), both of which are guessing that warming could top out at 3 degree Celsius.
The U.N. says that 110 countries have signed onto the accord, FT reports.
The business-as-usual scenario is about 4.8 degrees, according to CAP.
One bonus: since the Copenhagen accord was not legally binding countries could still manage to negotiate a more ambitious goal.
Following the conventional wisdom, we were negative about Copenhagen in December too.
At best, it still looks like a work in progress.